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DTSTAMP:20240501T055706Z
SUMMARY:Estimation of Downside Risks in Project Portfolio Selection
DESCRIPTION: \n\nThe Department of Decision Sciences invites you to attend 
 Estimation\nof Downside Risks in Project Portfolio Selection Speaker: Jann
 e\nKettunen\, Assistant Professor\, George Washington University\n\nAbstra
 ct Project portfolio selection is an important decision in many\norganizat
 ions. Most studies on project portfolio selection focus on\nidentifying th
 e ‘right’ project portfolio under various criteria\,\nsuch as reward a
 nd risk. We show that the uncertainties in estimating\nprojects’ values\
 , combined with the selection of a subset of\nprojects\, has major implica
 tions for the risk estimates about\nportfolio value. From our analytical a
 nd simulation results\, we can\nconclude that if downside risks are measur
 ed in terms of lower\npercentiles of the distribution of portfolio value\,
  the estimates will\nhave a systematic upward or downward bias depending o
 n correlations\namong project values and among estimation errors. Second\,
  if the\nportfolio selection is curtailed by risk constraints\, we demonst
 rate\nthat tighter risk constraints results in more optimistic risk\nestim
 ates. Third\, even if employing Bayesian value estimates in many\ncases im
 proves the accuracy of risk estimates\, it will not yield\nunbiased estima
 tes. To obtain unbiased risk estimates\, we propose the\ncalibration of th
 e estimates\, where the calibration amount can be\nderived by analyzing pa
 st selection processes or by simulating the\nportfolio selection process. 
 Finally\, we propose how the calibration\nof risk estimates can be employe
 d in the project portfolio selection\nso that the portfolio more meticulou
 sly stays within the DM’s\nspecified risk level being free of the system
 atic bias in the risk\nestimate.\n\nBiography Janne Kettunen is an assista
 nt professor of decision\nsciences at the George Washington University Sch
 ool of Business. He\nhas previously been an assistant professor jointly at
  the askayne\nSchool of Business and at the Institute for Sustainable Ener
 gy\nEnvironment and Economy. He has also served in the advisory committee\
 nfor Deputy Minister of Environment Canada Paul Boothe on\n“Government
 ’s GHG emissions plans\, how to move forward with a\nregulatory approach
  for all major emitters.” Kettunen received MS\nfrom the Helsinki Univer
 sity of Technology\, MBA from the Hawaii\nPacific University\, and DSc fro
 m the Helsinki University of\nTechnology. The last three years of his doct
 oral studies 2006-2009\, he\nspent at the London Business School as a visi
 ting PhD student and a\nresearch fellow. Prior to engaging in the academic
  career\, he has\nworked with companies and institutes including Nokia (Ja
 pan)\, The\nBoard of Actuarials Standards (U.K.)\, Compagnie Financiere Tr
 adition\n(Asia Pacific)\, and Institute of Strategy and International Busi
 ness\n(Finland).\n 
DTSTART:20141204T160000Z
DTEND:20141204T170000Z
LOCATION:Gerri C. LeBow Hall\, 3220 Market Street\, 722\, Philadelphia\, PA
  19104
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